The old story of success in soccer goes something like this: Win at home, get a point on the road. The good news for Austin FC is that through seven games, they essentially have done just that.
When the schedule was released, it was clear that the first stretch of matches for the expansion team wouldn’t be easy. There were seven road matches to start, with six of the seven coming against teams that reached the MLS Cup Playoffs in 2020. Before the Verde & Black could even get to their home opener on June 19 at Q2 Stadium, another road match was added to the schedule on June 12 -- the second time the team would have to travel to the midwest to take on Sporting Kansas City.
Despite a three-match losing streak in the middle, ATXFC have now collected seven points through seven matches with just one more match to go before they get to June 19. So is the old adage true that you just need a point on the road? Let’s take a look at some recent MLS history.
2020 was obviously an irregular year -- with the way the schedule was made and the fact that there were no fans or supporters in the stands for the vast majority of the matches. So instead of including that year in our research, let’s just throw it out and look at the three previous seasons.
From 2017-19 there were 28 teams that averaged at least a point per game on the road. Of those 28 teams, only two did not finish in the top seven of their conference in that season. Finishing in the top seven is obviously important given the fact that the top seven teams in each conference will reach the playoffs in 2021.
The two teams that failed to finish in the top seven while earning more than one point per game on the road were the 2018 Vancouver Whitecaps and 2017 LA Galaxy. Both of those teams finished outside the top seven due to finishing near the bottom of the Western Conference at home.
If you want to take a look at how recent expansion teams have performed on the road, there’s a clear delineation point between teams who finished above one point per game away from home and those who didn’t. Nashville SC, Atlanta United and LAFC -- all teams who finished in the top seven in their expansion seasons -- finished with more than one point per game on the road, while Inter Miami CF, FC Cincinnati and Minnesota United finished with fewer - and below 7th in their conference. Back in 2015 -- when there were just 20 teams in MLS -- Orlando City SC finished seventh in the Eastern Conference with 1.06 points per game on the road and New York City FC finished eighth with .88.
There’s still plenty of time for Austin to finish above or below the one point per road game threshold, with 10 road matches left on the schedule, but it’s clear Josh Wolff’s team is off to a respectable start, with a coveted playoff spot well within their sights.
